Bernreuter has warned, bizarrely, of a possible polysilicon shortage by 2028. The logic of the warning is that current twofold overcapacity will cause a large section of the fleet to be decommissioned, leading to a shortage in future. However, we find it very hard to believe that further growth in demand for solar panels will be able to suddenly accelerate far beyond its current scale of 600 GW (requiring around 1.2 million tons of polysilicon), or that the decommissioning will be so slow to revert that an un-mothballing effort could be outpaced a sudden hike in future demand. Bernreuter notes that there was a 400,000-ton stockpile (200 GW) at the end of 2024. France’s National Assembly briefly approved a temporary…